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New gambling record: Betting on outcome of Brexit vote

Ladbrokes has seen a tenfold increase in recent years.

Betting is his way to get in on the drama because as a foreign citizen from China he will not have a right to vote. presidential race, which was its previous record for a political event. All Rights Reserved. referendum betting already hit a record for a political event days ago for Betfair, bookmaker BetFred and IG, the largest provider of spread betting services.

Thursday’s vote on whether to leave the European Union, which will have lasting consequences for the country and Europe, is due to break the record as the most bet-upon political event in Britain’s history. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Polls suggest it is too close to call, while bookies give the “remain” side a higher chance of winning.

For Stephen Jones, 55, betting is a form of insurance against disappointment. That’s particularly true since pollsters have missed badly in measuring sentiment before some of Britain’s most recent votes, the last general election and the Scottish referendum.

E.U.

Betfair, bookmakers Ladbrokes and Paddy Power and the Betting Research Unit at Nottingham Business School all estimate that the total value of bets on the vote placed in Britain will reach, and likely exceed, 100 million pounds.. The referendum also outmatches the 35 million pounds placed on the 2014 World Cup Final.

“This is comfortably the biggest political betting event in history and dwarves both the general election and the Scottish referendum,” says Lewis Davey, spokesman for Paddy Power, referring to the Scottish vote on independence last year.

Betting on political events used to be a niche area in the gambling industry but has become more widespread, particularly in Britain. But the importance, drama and uncertainty that have surrounded this vote have made it a spectator sport in its own right. While the polls show this week’s vote is too close to call, bookies like Betfair are giving the “remain” side a 76 percent probability of winning. The industry is expecting 100 million pounds, or nearly $150 million, to be wagered by the time the result is known in the early hours of Friday.

LONDON — As if the stakes were not high enough in Britain’s nail-biting vote this week, people are betting record amounts of money on its outcome.

© 2016 The Associated Press. That’s reflected in financial markets, where stocks and the British pound are relatively buoyant one day before the big event.

“If we are going to remain in the E.U., at least I will take compensation,” said Jones, who expects to get 3,000 pounds back in profit in such an event. It has become increasingly popular, particularly to bet on financial markets.

The bookies’ odds have largely been in synch with global financial markets. Such betting fever is normally associated with major sports events, with people here habitually placing wagers online or in betting shops on everything from horse races to football matches. “But my big win is to leave the E.U.”

Betting exchange Betfair says it had taken 45.8 million pounds in wagers on the E.U. That surpasses the 40 million pounds placed on the 2012 U.S. vote as of Wednesday and expects a final amount of 50 million pounds. He was back in the betting shop this week to place additional wagers on behalf of three American friends.

“This is a historical event, and I want to take part in it,” said Can Zhao, an investment researcher who last week placed a 135-pound ($198) bet on “remain” at a Ladbrokes betting parlor near London’s Kings Cross train station.

The betting has also gained the attention of global investors as a gauge of the likelihood of an event’s outcome. He intends to vote to leave the E.U., but has placed bets on “remain” to at least get something in case of his side’s defeat.

Betfair allows people to place wagers against each other rather than setting odds like the traditional bookmakers. Spread betting, on the other hand, does not provide a simple win or lose outcome, but can provide payoffs based on the accuracy of the bet

College Football: Pictures, Videos, Breaking News

Helping others find their WHY and their Way.

Political science professor, LaGrange College in Georgia

Will the Big 12 conference expand from 10 to 12 teams? There will be a meeting on this issue in a few weeks, with a possible decision later this summe…

Like the mortgage industry implosion of 2008, the college football business is an impending disaster. This is especially true after our hugely disappointing loss to the no-nonsense, mistake-free, steady-as-she goes Iowa Hawkeyes on Friday at 90,000-strong Memorial Stadium in Lincoln (Nebraska’s 347th consecutive sellout).

Robert Scheer

Father, husband, blogger, author, Emmy Winner, Health Insurance Provider. But all the state is doing is making it less likely its teams will ever win a championship.

John A. Tures

Best selling lottery and structured settlement expert

Author and expert in the field of critical thinking and mental toughness training

Forbes Education Columnist; Author, ‘How to Talk American’; Director, ‘Crotty’s Kids’; Co-founder, ‘Monk Magazine’

The final College Football Playoff Game is tonight, and the No. Tures

At a time when lunch counter sit-ins were met with insults and abuse, peaceful protest marches provoked fire hoses and snarling police dogs, Eddie Robinson urged Grambling athletes and students to go to class, get an education, and be ready for change.. There is no revenue in ticket sales.

We are proud to create as many avenues as possible for our students to learn, grow and succeed. 1, Clemson Tigers. The play that changed everything for Fisher and his FSU program was made on a punt against an unranked team.

James Marshall Crotty

Nothing I say here will assuage the pain of being a Nebraska Cornhusker football fan right now. Without the athletes, there is no college sports. Fifteen minutes of his insights got me on the right path and the book will be released next week.

FlockU

Editor, Truthdig.com; Author, ‘They Know Everything About You’

John A. It’s not a matter of if, but when, does the bubble burst?

Suffering from “Florida Envy,” Georgia schools and teams think they’re serving their fans with a “win a championship or bust approach,” desperate to keep pace with their Southern neighbors. Alabama is heavily favored in its fourth championship game since 2009 with Coach Nick Saban, despite having lost one game this season.

Don McNay

Everyone is talking about the College Football Playoff, but what about the games leading up to it? Make your predictions on Sage and tune in to see if you were right.

Drew Lesicko

Houston Barber

Mark Brodinsky

College is 4-ish years of living the dream and FlockU is along for the ride.

In this week’s Scheer Intelligence podcast on KCRW, Robert Scheer speaks with former USC football player Anthony Davis about living with the brain injuries Davis sustained during his celebrated career.

GM, AOL Alpha/Director of Product, AOL Mobile. It’s inside each and every one of us. yet at the same time we are all amazing.

The most important play in Jimbo Fisher’s career wasn’t a Jameis Winston touchdown pass in the Rose Bowl, or a coast to coast Dalvin Cook run. We are all broken… Focus in this area demonstrates the strong commitment our Board of Education, administration, faculty, staff, and coaches have to our core belief in educating the whole child.

Political science professor, LaGrange College in Georgia

Steve Siebold

When I was at the point of giving up on my latest book, Brand New Man: My Weight Loss Journey, I called Nocera for advice.

A number of schools are considering firing their longtime successful coaches, in the hopes of getting a more successful one. There are no huge sponsorships from big companies like Nike. As much as we are different, we have much in common. Builder of products, solver of problems, lover of tech, travel, food and the Philadelphia Eagles

Adam Davis

Drew Lesicko

Remove the athletes and you remove the profit. juniors and sophomores, to drop out of school early, with a potential reward of a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract, or do they do so at their own peril later on?

By Brandon Ferris, Rider University ’18

 

There are about 70 days and counting until college football starts again.

You might ask you…

GM, AOL Alpha/Director of Product, AOL Mobile. It’s imminent. 2, Alabama Crimson Tide is taking on the No. Should they do so?

Is it worth it for underclassmen, i.e. Builder of products, solver of problems, lover of tech, travel, food and the Philadelphia Eagles

WordPress Specialist, Author of “Spirit & Truth: 52 Encouraging Messages for America’s Law Enforcement”

Writer and digital media professional living in Atlanta

The ability to know you are more than who you are. The coaches with their million dollar contracts have no one to coach. Unreasonable expectations, high turnovers, entitlement, participation trophies

All Bets Are Off On ‘Survivor’

The winner is unknown until he or she is chosen in a vote by other contestants during a live broadcast.

© 2003 The Associated Press. Asked if BoDog might consider legal action, he replied: “It’s not something we’d want to pursue, as a matter of precedent.”

“Only ‘The X-Files’ has more conspiracy theories than ‘Survivor,’” CBS spokesman Chris Ender said. The biggest payoff, $8,000, came on a $1,000 bet placed on the fifth “Survivor” at 8-to-1 odds.

Betting on events other than sports or racing is banned in Las Vegas sportsbooks, a spokeswoman for the Nevada Gaming Control Board said Thursday. The suspicion is they had insider knowledge, he said.

By Lynn Elber

“We’re pretty sure this is the case,” Bradley said. Bradley said that bets taken from those alleged to be with CBS skewed the odds significantly on “Survivor” contestants.

For the current “Survivor,” the bets in question affected the odds for contestants Jenna Morasca of Pittsburgh, Pa., and Matthew Von Ertfelda of Washington, D.C.

. He declined further comment on the allegations, or on any action CBS might take.

“Throughout the history of ‘Survivor,’ many have believed they knew the outcome of the show,” Ender said. All Rights Reserved. The players in question opened accounts with BoDog before “Survivor: Marquesas,” the fourth show, and bet only on the show and no other events.

Callers to the Bodog.com offices were told that wagers were no longer being accepted on “Survivor.”

BoDog requires that bettors must not have knowledge of an event’s outcome. Most offshore sportsbooks accept such alternative bets, said BoDog’s Bradley.

At least two players have been identified as CBS employees and other names may be connected to the network or may be aliases, Bradley said. One person was said by BoDog to work in a “production role” for CBS.

Odds will be offered on the seventh “Survivor” but all bettors will be carefully monitored, BoDog President Rob Gillespie said in a statement.

The show narrows the field to two finalists in filmed competitions. The players’ current bets on “Survivor: Amazon” have been canceled and their money refunded, Bradley said. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

An online sportsbook said it has dropped betting on CBS’ “Survivor” after allegedly finding that network employees were wagering – and winning – on the hit reality show.

The Costa Rica-based BoDog.com found at least two CBS employees betting on the show’s outcome, said BoDog spokesman Lance Bradley. “Some have been right, many have been wrong.”

He wasn’t aware of any other possible legal sanctions.

They wagered correctly on who would be the final two contestants in both the fourth and fifth editions of “Survivor,” Bradley said

Company Profile for Global Betting & Gaming Consultants

This is monitored on a daily

basis with a newsfeed service being provided at www.gbgc.com.

GBGC’s combination of operational and

financial experience combined with our gambling industry focus, our

extensive network of contacts and that fact that we are regarded as an

independent commentator on the industry means that we are able to

scratch the surface and get to the bottom of issues which can sometimes

be clouded by data alone.

CEO: Warwick Bartlett

GBGC has established itself as the most credible specialist

international gambling consultancy in the world. GBGC

also keeps abreast of all the latest corporate news in the sector as the

company publishes the quarterly GBGC50 and iGBGC indices.

In addition to its consultancy GBGC has produced four reviews of the

global gambling market that have been widely acknowledged to be the best

available both in terms of both their detail and accuracy. Bartlett has

an extensive track record in the gambling industry spanning some 40

years.

Company:

 

Global Betting and Gaming Consultants

+44(0)1624827138

Email:

The statistics and forecasts that are contained within the Global

Gambling Report have become widely recognised, within the industry, the

financial community and the Media, as the industry standard for sizing

both the online and offline gambling markets. The latest

review published October 2008 extends to over 1000 pages.

2nd Floor , 8-10 Malew Street

Castletown, OTHER IM9 1AB

United Kingdom

 

Main Telephone:

Our client base ranges from leading financial institutions such as UBS

and Dresdner Kleinwort to William Hill plc

Lorien Pilling

Phone:

Warwick Bartlett

Phone:

With an international focus GBGC are able to offer clients an additional

perspective gained from researching markets, working on projects and

attending/speaking at conferences around the world. As a result they have a much more in

depth understanding of the key issues and the direction that market

Private

 

Industry:

 

Public Relations

–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Global Betting and Gaming Consultants (GBGC) was established by its

Chief Executive and founder Warwick Bartlett during 1998.

warwick@gbgc.com

GBGC’s tracks market data, regulation and

industry news as it happens. The company has work

with or supplied information to over 400 clients the majority of whom

are ‘blue chip’.

Contact:

lorien@gbgc.com

+44(0)1624827138

Email:

Bartlett was advisor to The Government of Malta for two years and our

advice helped Malta establish itself as the leading off shore gambling

jurisdiction. As a result in this

instance we would be able to offer knowledge of the European, Australian

North & South American and Asian gambling markets.

+44(0)1624827138

 

Type of Organization:

GBGC’s personnel spend all of their time

looking at the gambling market. Consequently GBGC are the

most widely quoted source of industry data in share prospectuses and

analysts’ notes as well as on TV/Radio and in publications as diverse as

the Financial Times, Forbes, Time Magazine, BBC Radio 4, BBC Breakfast,

ITN news, the Economist and Fortune magazine.

Projects have included market research/assessments, business/facility

planning, product evaluations, design/operational reviews, the

development/review of corporate strategies, license applications,

regulation development for and on behalf of governments, IPOs, M and A

and due diligence. Typically clients include, operators,

monopolies/lotteries, suppliers, investment banks, the major

consultancies, and governments.

Consulting

 

Key Executives:

 

Public Relations

 

Headquarters Address:

Contact:

GBGC also provided the data on Internet gambling to lawyers representing

the government of Antigua in its case against the United States at the

WTO.

Head Of Research: Lorien Pilling

. We have advised the Government of Botswana on the

implementation of their new Gambling Act.

COO: Mark Pilkington

In addition GBGC could offer the added value of the knowledge of over

200 additional betting, gaming and lottery markets around the world and

would be able to instantly highlight any relevant comparators, etc. In addition to monitoring all of the

specialist industry press, both domestic and international, the company

also benefits from a daily electronic press cutting service that covers

more than 2,000 publications worldwide

“Arbitrage”: Critics rate Richard Gere’s new film

Gere, allow me to apply a little buzzicidal ointment. Gere and Sarandon previously appeared together on the big screen in the 2004 romantic comedy “Shall We Dance.”

Gere has attracted attention for his acting in the film, with Manohla Dargis of The New York Times noting, “Mr. The New York Post’s Klye Smith wrote, “And as for that so-called Oscar buzz for Mr.

Kyle Smith of The New York Post gave it 2 out of 4 stars: “‘Arbitrage’ is a decent enough way to spend your time compared to, say, waiting on line at the grocery story. All Rights Reserved.

Roger Ebert of The Chicago Sun-Times: “Hitchcock called his most familiar subject ‘The Innocent Man Wrongly Accused.’ Jarecki pumps up the pressure here by giving us a Guilty Man Accurately Accused, and that’s what makes the film so ingeniously involving.”

The 63-year-old “Pretty Woman” actor stars alongside Susan Sarandon and Tim Roth in the drama about a man desperate to complete the sale of his trading empire.

© 2012 CBS Interactive Inc. He’s the film’s most deluxe item.”

Pictures: Richard Gere

Watch: Gere and Sarandon discuss their new film, “Arbitrage”

Pictures: Fall Film Preview 2012

(CBS News) Richard Gere is back in the shoes of an investor powerhouse, portraying fictional New York hedge fund magnate Robert Miller in “Arbitrage,” which hits theaters today.

But not everyone agrees. Gere is one of cinema’s great walkers, graced with a suggestively predatory physical suppleness, and he slips through the movie like a panther. But why grade on a curve? Every episode of ‘Law & Order’ I’ve ever seen has a more complicated and plausible plot, punchier dialogue and more New York authenticity, all in less than half the time consumed by this poky would-be finance thriller.”

Peter Travers of Rolling Stone: “Richard Gere’s performance in the sinfully entertaining ‘Arbitrage’ is too good to ignore…he is at the peak of his powers.”

AP Photo/Roadside Attractions

Mary F. He ends up making a mistake that forces him to turn to an unlikely person for help. Pols of TIME: “The main reason to see ‘Arbitrage’ is Gere, whose steady improvement with age (he just turned 63) is not remarked upon enough.”

Richard Gere in a scene from “Arbitrage.”


Peter Debruge of Variety: “Between this cast and the conviction Jarecki brings to the table, the film feels incredibly accomplished for a first feature.”

Christy Lemmire of The Associated Press: “Gere is so charming, so irresistible when he’s on top of the world – when he’s got all those plates humming in unison – that he kind of makes you root for his character to get away with it all.”

See what else critics are saying:

. Clint Eastwood’s chair has a better shot at an Oscar nomination.”

The critics have chimed in on the new Nicholas Jarecki-directed film, with Rotten Tomatoes giving “Arbitrage” a very respectable 81 percent rating

Britain hits offshore gambling industry with 300 million pounds | Reuters

(Reporting By Christine Murray and William James; Editing by David Goodman)

Plans to bring offshore gaming companies under the British tax system were outlined in the government’s 2012 Budget, but the industry had been waiting for the detail – most crucially the rate at which they will be taxed.

“It is unacceptable that gambling companies can avoid UK taxes by moving offshore, and the government is taking decisive action to ensure this can no longer happen,” Economic Secretary to the Treasury Sajid Javid said.

LONDON Online betting companies based in offshore havens to sidestep Britain’s gambling taxes will be hit with a new levy that could cost the industry 300 million pounds ($467 million).

Shares in Ladbrokes, Bwin.party, William Hill and Betfair did not move significantly on the news.

Taxes on online casino gaming operations based in the British territory are levied at 1 percent on gross profit, with fixed-odds betting taxed at 1 percent of turnover. Both are capped at 425,000 pounds.

Land-based betting is also mostly taxed at a rate of 15 percent, except for land-based gaming, which takes in the likes of gaming machines and bricks-and-mortar casinos. Ladbrokes, Bwin.party, William Hill and Betfair all have online operations based in Gibraltar, which offers a benign tax regime for gambling companies.. The focus for us now is on trying to get the actual rate of the tax reduced,” Clive Hawkswood, chief executive of the Remote Gambling Association said.

The shift will affect some of the industry’s largest players. This attracts a variable tax rate of between 15 percent and 50 percent, a Treasury spokeswoman told Reuters.

The government, which said it will confirm the 15 percent rate in its Budget statement next March, estimates that the new rules will bring in 300 million pounds a year in additional tax revenue.

William Hill, which has the largest share of the UK’s remote-gambling market, has previously suggested that it could challenge the changes on the grounds that they breach European Union competition law.

Traditional land-based betting will be unaffected, the government said.

The tax will be levied on companies’ gross profit – total bets placed minus prizes paid out – in the 2 billion pound remote-gambling market from December 2014.

Under rules published on Friday, Britain will tax gambling according to where customers are based rather than where the online operator is registered, meaning that offshore operators pay the same 15 percent tax rate as domestic remote-betting companies.

“These reforms will ensure that remote-gambling operators who have UK customers make a fair contribution to the public finances.”

“We knew it was coming ..

How the Sports Betting Line is Made by RJ Bell

This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC.

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public.

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

RJ Bell

©Pregame.com 2006

Website: http://www.Pregame.com

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor).

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision.

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Contributed by:

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

How the Opening Line Is Made

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture. If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather.

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10). In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created.

Why the Line Changes

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. .

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’)

The Advantages of Forex Arbitrage Calculators

Thus, it is important for a trader to quickly detect such opportunities, make the necessary calculations, decide if the differences is worthwhile, and then trade. They work on real time and keep you accessible to the quotes of different currency pricings, there and then. The good thing with the Forex arbitrage calculator is that it can do what a human cannot do. The Forex arbitrage calculator can be widely found in the Internet and can be downloaded for free or a fee. For traders who want to do well in Forex arbitrage, this calculator is an important tool to maximizing their gains. It is also more accurate in its calculations than humans are. Before getting the real software, it is best to look at the free demo and try out their trial versions to ensure that the software is suitable to your needs and is truly reliable.

In Forex arbitrage, a trader basically buys a currency from one market and then sells it off at another. However, one should understand that the difference is only temporary, as the market will need to correct its prices so that there is equality in prices of the currencies. The market in which it buys from will have a lower price quote of a currency than the market it sells to, allowing the trader to gain profit from the differences that occur between the two markets. This process, if done manually, will require time and patience, which means you may lose the opportunity if you are not quick enough. This correction can happen very quickly. In other words, in terms of the human problems with speed, efficiency, and accuracy, the calculator can overcome. However, with the presence of the Forex arbitrage calculator, this problem can be overcome.

. The calculator basically helps to identify arbitrage opportunities through its calculations

- News

Discuss and do reviews of William Hill or Ladbrokes or sports book betting, or join to understand betting odds and lines.

Online sports betting forum for sportsbook wagers of all kinds, handicapping discussed, find free picks, football, baseball, soccer and basketball betting, NFL betting lines, betting tips.   People that visit find point spreads as well as The Betting Forum to be critical.   Las Vegas might look at why Idol Betting has become so newsworthy as a topic.

football news | links

contact us .

The current prelevance of American Idol Betting and Las Vegas Casinos is completely successful

How to prevent a depression

More monetary and credit easing is also required for the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank. So, what can be done to minimize the fallout of another economic contraction and prevent a deeper depression and financial meltdown?

·         A five-year cumulative 30% deflation in prices and wages – in Greece, for example – which would mean five years of deepening and socially unacceptable depression; even if feasible, this amount of deflation would exacerbate insolvency, given a 30% increase in the real value of debt.

Today, Spain and Italy are at risk of losing market access. Until then, markets will keep pressure on sovereign spreads, making a self-fulfilling crisis likely.

Third, to restore credit growth, eurozone banks and banking systems that are under-capitalized should be strengthened with public financing in a European Union-wide program. European shares extended the previous session’s sharp sell-off on Friday on deepening worries over slowing global economic growth and the region’s banks facing short-term funding stress because of the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis. REUTERS/Bogdan Cristel

Fourth, large-scale liquidity provision for solvent governments is necessary to avoid a spike in spreads and loss of market access that would turn illiquidity into insolvency. And countries, like China, that rely excessively on net exports for growth should accelerate reforms, including more rapid currency appreciation, in order to boost domestic demand and consumption.

Fifth, debt burdens that cannot be eased by growth, savings, or inflation must be rendered sustainable through orderly debt restructuring, debt reduction, and conversion of debt into equity. The balance-sheet effects on euro debts caused by the depreciation of the new national currency would thus have to be handled through an orderly and negotiated conversion of euro liabilities into the new national currencies.

Sixth, even if Greece and other peripheral eurozone countries are given significant debt relief, economic growth will not resume until competitiveness is restored. The appropriate response to such massive changes is not protectionism. So, if countries in the eurozone’s periphery are forced to undertake fiscal austerity, countries able to provide short-term stimulus should do so and postpone their own austerity efforts. Inflation will soon be the last problem that central banks will fear, as renewed slack in goods, labor, real estate, and commodity markets feeds disinflationary pressures.

·         A rapid reduction in unit labor costs, via acceleration of structural reform and productivity growth relative to wage growth, is also unlikely, as that process took 15 years to restore competitiveness to Germany.

Because these options cannot work, the sole alternative is an exit from the eurozone by Greece and some other current members. The European Central Bank should reverse its mistaken decision to hike interest rates. Official resources need to be tripled – through a larger European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), Eurobonds, or massive ECB action – to avoid a disastrous run on these sovereigns.

Photo: A man walks past a display board of a currency exchange office in Bucharest August 19, 2011. This needs to be carried out for insolvent governments, households, and financial institutions alike.

There are three options for restoring competitiveness within the eurozone, all requiring a real depreciation – and none of which is viable:

·         A sharp weakening of the euro towards parity with the US dollar, which is unlikely, as the US is weak, too.

Second, while monetary policy has limited impact when the problems are excessive debt and insolvency rather than illiquidity, credit easing, rather than just quantitative easing, can be helpful. And, without a rapid return to growth, more defaults – and social turmoil – cannot be avoided.

Eighth, emerging-market economies have more policy tools left than advanced economies do, and they should ease monetary and fiscal policy. Infrastructure banks that finance needed public infrastructure should be created as well.

Leaving the common currency would, of course, threaten collateral damage for the exiting country and raise the risk of contagion for other weak eurozone members. Also, since the US and EU financial systems remain unlikely to provide credit to small and medium-size enterprises, direct government provision of credit to solvent but illiquid SMEs is essential.

By Nouriel Roubini

The opinions expressed are his own.

This piece originally appeared on Project Syndicate. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank can serve as lender of last resort to emerging markets at risk of losing market access, conditional on appropriate policy reforms. Appropriate use of official resources, including for recapitalization of eurozone banks, would be needed to limit collateral damage and contagion.

Seventh, the reasons for advanced economies’ high unemployment and anemic growth are structural, including the rise of competitive emerging markets. These countries include the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, the core of the eurozone, and Japan. Only a return to a national currency – and a sharp depreciation of that currency – can restore competitiveness and growth.

AMSTERDAM – The latest economic data suggests that recession is returning to most advanced economies, with financial markets now reaching levels of stress unseen since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Instead, the advanced economies need a medium-term plan to restore competitiveness and jobs via massive new investments in high-quality education, job training and human-capital improvements, infrastructure, and alternative/renewable energy. The best way to avoid the risk of repeating such a sequence is bold and aggressive global policy action now.

First, we must accept that austerity measures, necessary to avoid a fiscal train wreck, have recessionary effects on output. Only such a program can provide workers in advanced economies with the tools needed to compete globally.. The risks of an economic and financial crisis even worse than the previous one – now involving not just the private sector, but also near-insolvent sovereigns – are significant. Even with policy changes, it takes time for governments to restore their credibility. Wrong-headed policies during the first Great Depression led to trade and currency wars, disorderly debt defaults, deflation, rising income and wealth inequality, poverty, desperation, and social and political instability that eventually led to the rise of authoritarian regimes and World War II. To avoid an additional credit crunch as banks deleverage, banks should be given some short-term forbearance on capital and liquidity requirements.

The risks ahead are not just of a mild double-dip recession, but of a severe contraction that could turn into Great Depression II, especially if the eurozone crisis becomes disorderly and leads to a global financial meltdown